Yemisi Izuora
Africa currently faces a double exposure when Middle East supply chains fracture losing both crude export revenue potential and refined fuel import reliability simultaneously.
This structural imbalance reflects decades of underinvestment in downstream refining infrastructure and a historical pattern of extractive resource economics that prioritised crude export revenues over domestic processing capability.
Africa’s most critical and least publicised vulnerability lies not in what it produces but in what it cannot process.
According to analysis from the Institute for Security Studies, despite accounting for approximately 8 per cent of global crude output, the continent generates only around 2 per cent of global refined product volumes. The downstream consequences of this imbalance are severe.
Approximately 68 per cent of African crude is exported in unrefined form, while roughly 61 per cent of the continent’s refined fuel requirements are sourced through imports
East and Southern African nations source approximately 75 per cent of their refined fuel importsfrom the Middle East
The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, with a nameplate processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, represents the most significant single addition to African refining infrastructure in decades. Its primary design purpose is to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and generate exportable surplus for West African neighbours.
In a supply disruption scenario, Dangote’s output provides partial substitution for Middle Eastern refined product flows into West Africa.
However, two critical limitations define its boundaries.
The refinery’s practical distribution reach is concentrated in West Africa. It does not meaningfully address the refined fuel import vulnerability of East African or Southern African nations, which source approximately 75 per cent of their refined imports from the Middle East.
Even at full utilisation, 650,000 b/d of refining capacity addresses a fraction of the regional demand gap created by a 10 million b/d supply disruption at the global level.
South Africa’s situation illustrates the Southern African dimension acutely. Domestic refining capacity has contracted by roughly 50 per cent due to sustained underinvestment, forcing the country to source refined products from external suppliers including the Netherlands and Nigeria.