Yemisi Izuora
Market leaders and researchers at the Coronation Asset Management, have delivered a strong verdict predicting that Nigeria’s capital market is entering the second half of 2026 from a position of significantly stronger domestic participation, improved macroeconomic stability and renewed potential for international investor interest.
Their position was delivered at the Coronation Media Parley 2026, which was held in collaboration with the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN).
The media parley, themed “Positioning for the Second Half: Market Outlook, Capital Flows and Investment Opportunities”, and brought together capital-market journalists, industry leaders and researchers to examine the forces behind the market’s strong first-half performance and the opportunities and risks that could shape the remainder of the year.
The NGX All-Share Index delivered a 57 per cent return by the end of July 2026, while total market capitalisation increased by ₦58.9 trillion to ₦158.3 trillion during the first seven months of the year.
Addressing journalists at the session, Aigbovbioise Aig-Imoukhuede, Managing Director, Coronation Asset Management, said the performance should be viewed within the broader structural changes taking place in Nigeria’s capital market. He noted that the market’s rally had been driven primarily by domestic capital rather than foreign portfolio flows, pointing to the growing role of domestic institutional and retail investors in supporting market performance.
“The rally we have witnessed is not merely a market event. It reflects a stronger domestic capital base, improving macroeconomic stability and a growing opportunity for long-term investors who position thoughtfully for the second half of the year,” Aig-Imoukhuede said.
He added that the changing composition of market participation was an important indicator of resilience, particularly as domestic investors increasingly provide the capital needed to sustain market activity.
According to the presentation, foreign investors accounted for 12.1 per cent of NGX transaction value as of June 2026, compared with 27.1 per cent a year earlier. While foreign portfolio holdings increased modestly during the period, domestic participation expanded significantly, with pension funds and other institutional investors playing a greater role following changes to investment thresholds.
Aig-Imoukhuede said the development should not be interpreted as a retreat from international capital, but as evidence of a market developing a stronger domestic foundation. “Markets become resilient when they are supported by savings rather than speculation,” he said.
The strong headline performance of the equities market also masks significant differences across sectors and companies, making selectivity increasingly important for investors in the second half of the year.
Gbemisola Adelokiki, Head, Equities Research, Coronation Research, highlighted the key trends emerging from the equities market and the factors investors should consider when assessing opportunities for the remainder of 2026. Her analysis reinforced the view that the market’s strong performance does not eliminate the need for disciplined stock selection. With several large-cap stocks already experiencing significant re-rating, investors are likely to place greater emphasis on earnings quality, valuations, liquidity, corporate governance and the ability of individual businesses to benefit from the broader economic recovery.
The speakers also examined the conditions that could support renewed foreign investor participation. Nigeria’s improving foreign-exchange liquidity, stronger reserve position and greater currency stability are providing a more supportive environment for international investors. At the same time, the continued banking recapitalisation cycle, corporate earnings and broader reform momentum are strengthening the investment case.
The potential review of Nigeria’s classification by global index providers could provide an additional catalyst. While no outcome is guaranteed, a change in classification could increase international visibility and potentially support passive and active capital flows into the market.
Aig-Imoukhuede said investors should therefore distinguish between waiting for certainty and positioning for probability. “The best opportunities are often identified before consensus recognises them. Those who wait for certainty will almost certainly pay a higher price than those willing to position for probability,” he said.
Beyond market performance and capital flows, Aig-Imoukhuede used the session to highlight the institutional responsibility required to sustain the next phase of Nigeria’s capital-market development. He argued that the long-term strength of the market would depend not only on the volume of capital attracted, but on the quality and credibility of the institutions receiving and deploying that capital.
“Nigeria’s capital markets do not simply need capital. They need trust. They need transparency. And they need institutions willing to be judged by the quality of their thinking, not merely the size of their returns,” he said.
He further emphasised the distinction between attracting capital and building the confidence required to retain it. “Capital is mobile. Trust is not. Capital can enter a market quickly and leave just as quickly. Trust takes years to build and moments to lose. The long-term success of Nigeria’s capital markets will depend on which of those we choose to prioritise.”
For Coronation, this places the development of the capital market within a broader responsibility to support sustainable wealth creation and strengthen the institutions that underpin investment confidence.
The discussions also highlighted three broad principles for investors navigating the remainder of 2026: prioritising quality over convenience, pursuing selectivity over broad market exposure, and positioning ahead of identifiable market catalysts.
With monetary policy expected to remain broadly stable, investors may increasingly look beyond short-dated instruments towards selective opportunities in quality credit, infrastructure debt and other longer-term fixed-income exposures.
Equities, meanwhile, are expected to reward companies with strong earnings momentum, sound governance, adequate liquidity and clear pathways to benefit from renewed domestic and international participation.
The discussion also reinforced the importance of infrastructure financing as a long-term opportunity, given Nigeria’s significant capital requirements across sectors including energy and transport.
Closing his address, Aig-Imoukhuede described Nigeria’s capital market as being at an important inflection point.
“The first half of 2026 demonstrated the strength of Nigerian capital. The second half will test the confidence of global capital. I believe Nigeria is better positioned today than at any point in recent years to attract both,” he said. “The opportunity before us is not simply to deliver market returns. It is to build a capital market that is deeper, more trusted, more liquid and more globally relevant.”
The Coronation Media Parley forms part of Coronation’s broader commitment to supporting informed conversations around Nigeria’s financial markets, investment opportunities and the role of capital in sustainable economic development.