Yemisi Izuora
The risk of a $1tn plus shock to the global economy is increasing from a growing risk of major conflicts and cyber attacks, according to research from the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies (CCRS).
In its Global Risk Index 2017, the CCRS has identified 22 different types of shocks with the potential to cause economic losses over $1tn.
These range from major storms and disease outbreaks to financial crises and wars.
According to CCRS analysis, the world is now more likely to see an economic shock over the next three years than was the case two years ago.
CCRS found that the ten-year probability-weighted expected loss from the 22 types of shocks is estimated at 1.48 percent of global domestic production (GDP), higher than its previous ten-year forecast in 2014 of 1.46 percent.
The University of Cambridge unit also found that the short-term risk outlook is higher than the long-term perspective.
For the period 2017 to 2019, the percentage of GDP at risk from a major event is 1.51 percent, or $1.17tn.