Uche Cecil Izuora
The global Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) market could face a major supply shortfall by 2030, but this is creating an opportunity for ongoing Nigeria LNG project development and delayed gas projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Senegal.
African gas demand has nearly stalled in 2026, rising by just 0.3 billion cubic meters after increasing by 6 billion cubic meters, or more than 3.4 per cent in 2025.
Nigeria has helped fill the supply gap created by disruptions in the Gulf, with Nigerian LNG among the suppliers that added about 3.5 million tonnes of volumes in April 2026.
Oriental News Nigeria reports that due to increased oil production from positive developments in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria LNG capacity has been increased to five trains, with more improvements expected.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February has sharply reshaped global LNG trade and placed Africa in a contradictory position.
African consumers have borne the impact of higher prices, while the continent’s producers have helped fill part of the supply gap left by Persian Gulf exporters.
The International Gas Union (IGU) highlighted this dynamic in its Global Gas Report 2026, published on Wednesday, August 26.
African gas demand increased by 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025, or more than 3.4 per cent year on year, but demand has nearly stabilized in 2026, with an increase of just 0.3 bcm.
African buyers rank among the markets most exposed to price swings, alongside emerging Asia. As higher prices strained their ability to absorb additional costs, buyers reduced consumption or switched to cheaper fuels. In Egypt, for example, the monthly gas bill surged from $560 million to $1.65 billion after the conflict began.
Gulf disruption has opened space for African LNG suppliers according to report.
Qatar’s LNG exports, meanwhile, plunged 91 per cent year on year in May 2026. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on deliveries through mid-June after Iranian strikes damaged two liquefaction trains at the Ras Laffan facility in March and disrupted production from the North Field.
Global buyers consequently turned to alternative suppliers. Nigerian LNG ranked among the producers that supplied about 3.5 million tonnes of additional volumes in April 2026, alongside Canada, the United States and Malaysia. US LNG terminals also operated at 119 per cent of capacity in March as exporters sought to maximize available volumes.
Beyond the immediate disruption, the report points to a structural opportunity for African gas producers. If global demand maintains its recent trajectory, demand could reach between 4,516 bcm and 4,575 bcm by 2030.
However, projects that investors have already approved would supply only about 3,670 bcm.
This gap could create significant room for African gas projects that await final investment decisions (FIDs), particularly projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Senegal.
The report also sees room for African gas demand to recover after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Shell expects African gas demand to continue growing through 2040, while the IGU places a potential reopening of the strait around the end of this year.