By David Akoji
I went to an MRS Filling Station to buy fuel today and was told that price per litre is currently 950/litre and that this price adjustment happened this morning.
The unfolding war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has rapidly evolved from a regional confrontation into a global geopolitical crisis with far reaching consequences. What initially appeared to be a targeted military operation has escalated into a broader conflict that now threatens global energy security, economic stability, and international peace. For Nigeria, an oil-producing but import dependent economy, the ripple effects are already being felt by ordinary citizens.
The crisis escalated dramatically on 28 February 2026, when coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, military leadership, and strategic infrastructure. The operation which was reportedly designed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and weaken its military capabilities triggered immediate retaliation from Iran through missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory and U.S. military installations in the Gulf region with many countries in the Middle East feeling the heat.
Iran has also since moved to restrict shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime energy corridors through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply passes. The disruption caused tanker traffic to drop drastically and sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
At the onset of hostilities, the expectations of the major actors differed significantly:
• The United States and Israel reportedly expected a swift degradation of Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, hoping the operation would deter future threats and restore regional balance.
• Iran, however, framed the strikes as an existential attack and vowed a prolonged response, mobilizing its military assets and regional alliances.
• Global powers, including China, Russia and European states, initially pushed for diplomatic restraint but now face the challenge of managing escalating geopolitical and economic fallout.
The conflict has since evolved into a broader confrontation with implications extending well beyond the Middle East.
The Current Reality on ground holds far reaching implications for Global Peace
The immediate consequence of the war has been a destabilization of global energy markets and international trade routes. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have already tightened oil supply, driving energy prices upward and triggering inflationary pressures worldwide, no wonder I had to buy fuel at 950/litre.
Analysts warn that if the conflict continues or spreads across the Gulf region beyond what is already happening, the global economy could face a period of heightened volatility, supply chain disruptions, and potential recessionary pressures.
Beyond economic concerns, the crisis raises broader questions about global security architecture. The possibility of proxy conflicts across the Middle East, cyber warfare, and attacks on energy infrastructure could further destabilize international relations.
It is important to examine the early Impact of this war on Ordinary Nigerians.
Although Nigeria is geographically distant from the conflict zone, the economic linkages of globalization mean that its effects are already being felt domestically.
The most immediate impact is on fuel prices and inflation. Rising crude oil prices triggered by the conflict have already pushed up domestic petroleum costs. Analysts warn that petrol prices in Nigeria could climb well over ₦1,000 per litre if the crisis intensifies. In Abuja the price is already 950 Naira at MRS.
Higher fuel costs inevitably translate into increased transportation fares, food prices, and general cost of living this placing additional pressure on households already grappling with inflation.
Energy market disruptions may also create broader economic volatility. While higher oil prices could boost Nigeria’s export revenue, the benefits may not automatically translate into relief for citizens if domestic supply constraints and structural inefficiencies persist.
In essence, the war presents Nigeria with a paradox: potential fiscal gains from higher crude prices on one hand, if we are able to consistently meet our production quota, and rising living costs for ordinary Nigerians on the other.
It then becomes pertinent to ask: what steps have been taken by the Nigerian Government?
In response to the unfolding crisis, the Nigerian government has begun monitoring developments closely through economic and diplomatic channels. Authorities are reportedly assessing potential impacts on fuel supply, foreign exchange stability, and food prices.
Key policy responses expected or already underway include:
• Monitoring global oil price movements and adjusting fiscal projections.
• Strengthening foreign exchange management to cushion volatility.
• Coordinating with energy stakeholders to stabilize domestic fuel supply.
• Engaging diplomatically through multilateral forums to support de-escalation.
Economic policy experts have also urged the government to build fiscal buffers and strengthen reforms to mitigate external shocks.
What Nigerians Should Expect:
Short Term
In the immediate months ahead, Nigerians are likely to experience:
• Rising fuel prices and transportation costs
• Inflationary pressure on food and consumer goods
• Volatility in exchange rates and financial markets
Medium Term
If the conflict persists, the country may face:
• Increased government revenues from higher oil prices
• Pressure on domestic industries due to global supply disruptions
• Potential fiscal adjustments in the national budget
Long Term
A prolonged conflict could reshape global energy politics and accelerate shifts toward energy diversification. For Nigeria, this could present opportunities to strengthen domestic refining capacity and expand non-oil sectors of the economy.
Nigeria should robustly sensitize its citizens on these expected possibilities as the war in Iran persists.
What Nigeria Should Do at This Stage
Experts believe Nigeria must robustly sensitize citizens through the National Orientation Agency and get public buy-in on unfolding policy measures aimed at managing the negative impact of the war, in addition, Nigeria should adopt a strategic approach to cushion the impact of the crisis. Key steps should include:
1. Strengthening domestic refining capacity, particularly leveraging the Dangote refinery and other facilities to reduce import dependence.
2. Building fiscal buffers to manage oil revenue windfalls responsibly.
3. Accelerating economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to global energy shocks.
4. Enhancing energy security through investment in gas and renewable energy.
5. Strengthening diplomatic engagement within regional and global forums to advocate for peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Conclusion
The war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States represents one of the most consequential geopolitical crises of the decade. While the battlefield lies thousands of kilometres away from Nigeria, its economic and social consequences are already unfolding within the country.
For ordinary Nigerians, the conflict underscores a fundamental reality of the globalized world: distant wars can quickly translate into domestic economic pressures. As the crisis evolves, Nigeria’s ability to manage the economic fallout, protect citizens, and harness potential opportunities will determine how successfully the nation navigates this turbulent moment in global affairs.
David Akoji is a Director, Special Duties/ States Operations, National Orientation Agency