Roland Iwuchukwu
BudgIT, a prominent civic-tech organisation promoting transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s public finance, has raised significant concerns over the Federal Government’s 2026 Budget, describing it as ambitious but unrealistic, and-within the circumstances-not feasible.
Initially, the proposed budget submitted by the President was N58.47 trillion. This was later revised to N68.32 trillion after the Senate adopted an adjustment as requested by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which expanded the budget by about N9.09 trillion. The 2026 budget is the largest fiscal plan in the history of Nigeria. The government says it will rely on a mix of revenue enhancements and borrowings to finance the expanded budget.
With total projected revenue of N36.87 trillion against planned expenditure of N68.32 trillion, the government faces a fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion, equivalent to 6.41% of GDP, well above the Fiscal Responsibility Act threshold of 3%. In practical terms, the government can only finance 53.9% of its budget from actual revenues, leaving 46.1% dependent on borrowing and loans. One can reasonably infer a structural fiscal imbalance that has, despite several warnings from observers, become embedded in Nigeria’s fiscal framework.
Over the years, revenue performance has remained weak in our budgeting system, and public trust in governance is fragile. Hence, effective budget execution requires not only the publication of allocations but also the timely disclosure of execution reports. Pushing timely and accessible fiscal reports is an indication of a government willing to be transparent and willing to provide the raw materials for accountability. Yet, in Nigeria, approved budgets do not necessarily translate into performance, as fund releases are opaque and untraceable.
On the expenditure side, the budget reflects an expansionary inclination, with total spending rising significantly. Capital expenditure accounts for N32.28 trillion (47.13%) in the 2026 approved budget, signalling a stated commitment to infrastructure and long-term growth. However, this is constrained by the weight of debt obligations. Debt servicing alone is projected at N15.8 trillion, consuming roughly 23% of total expenditure and nearly 45% of projected revenue. This creates tight fiscal space, where a substantial portion of government earnings is pre-committed, restricting investments in critical sectors.
Sectoral allocations reveal persistent misalignment between spending and development priorities. While security receives a substantial N6.98tn (10.21% of the budget), critical human capital sectors remain underfunded. Health accounts for just 5.2% of the budget, again far below the 15% Abuja Declaration benchmark, while education receives approximately 4%, well below global standards. These gaps have direct consequences: a health system heavily reliant on out-of-pocket spending and an education system struggling with over 18 million out-of-school children.
Commenting, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Engr. Adejoke Akinbode states that the 2026 budget reflects a government attempting to balance growth ambitions with fiscal realities but hemmed in by structural inefficiencies. The numbers point to an unambiguous conclusion: Nigeria’s challenge is not just revenue generation, but revenue realism, expenditure discipline, sound debt management and institutional credibility. Without addressing these foundational issues, the current trajectory risks exacerbating fiscal vulnerability, limiting economic growth and worsening social outcomes. “The country is approaching an election year, and there are concerns that the budget may bear characteristics of a politically motivated, pre-election spending framework designed to maximise short-term visibility rather than long-term national value”, she said.
BudgIT, therefore, calls for the enforcement of zero tolerance for extra-budgetary spending and off-book expenditures. The executive should implement a strict prioritisation framework that channels limited public resources toward high-impact and economically catalytic projects capable of stimulating productivity, improving service delivery, and supporting long-term economic growth.