Uche Cecil Izuora
As key oil producer companies face tight supply constraints, attention is now shifting toward the next wave of production.
These companies are now eyeing emerging, less developed, higher-risk regions, but increasingly necessary in a market that needs new supply.
According to findings, Nigeria and other frontier exploration is back to boost exports as Iran continues to disrupt trade and supply chain.
In Nigeria, the Italian multinational Eni has scheduled to recover nearly 560 million barrels of oil equivalent and to deliver production of about 150,000 barrels per day, from its OPL 245 block as it targets first production by 2029.
The firm had secured approval from Government to commit an estimated $10.3 billion to deepwater offshore projects. Upstream Online reported the development on Tuesday, April 21.
The investment primarily targets the Zabazaba and Etan oil fields on the offshore OPL 245 block. The project includes the installation of a floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) and associated subsea infrastructure.
The company expects these facilities to recover nearly 560 million barrels of oil equivalent and to deliver production of about 150,000 barrels per day, according to data cited by Offshore Technology. The company targets first production by 2029.
The Federal Government granted approval after years of regulatory and legal delays surrounding OPL 245. The license triggered international litigation involving Eni and Shell, as reported by Reuters.
In March, Agence Ecofin reported that Nigeria split the oil block into four new licenses awarded to Eni and Shell. This decision ended the dispute and enabled investment to resume.
The restructuring divided OPL 245 into two Petroleum Mining Leases (PML 102 and 103) and two Petroleum Prospecting Leases (PPL 2011 and 2012). Nigerian Agip Exploration operates all licenses in partnership with NNPC Ltd and Shell.
Following this shift, Eni reiterated its intention to accelerate the project while Nigerian authorities work to strengthen contractual frameworks and governance standards in the sector.
The approval aligns with Nigeria’s strategy to increase national oil production. The Government seeks to mobilize capital to develop offshore resources, which face fewer disruptions than onshore sites in the Niger Delta. Authorities target output of 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of this year and up to 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
In December 2025, Nigeria launched a bid round covering 50 oil and gas blocks. Several international companies confirmed interest in these offshore assets, including TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Chevron.
According to NNPC Ltd, these commitments represent around $24 billion in upstream oil investments.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has also received N318.05bn between January and August 2025 for frontier oil exploration.
This is according to documents from the September 2025 Federation Account Allocation Committee meeting.
The Petroleum Industry Act 2021 created the Frontier Exploration Fund, which mandates that 30 per cent of profits from NNPC’s Production Sharing Contracts be channelled into oil search across under-explored basins, including Anambra, Bida, Dahomey, Sokoto, Chad and Benue.
Regulations also require the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to manage the fund through an escrow account and issue an annual Frontier Basin Exploration and Development Plan.
Also, offshore discoveries in Namibia have re-energized interest in underexplored basins, suggesting that large-scale resources remain to be found. Suriname is following a similar trajectory, building on the broader Atlantic margin trend that has already transformed Guyana into a major producer.
In Latin America, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta stands out.
It is one of the few shale resources outside North America with true scale potential. While infrastructure and economic volatility remain challenges, the resource itself is drawing sustained attention from both operators and investors.
The Eastern Mediterranean adds another layer.
Gas discoveries in the region are creating new opportunities for supply into Europe, particularly as the continent seeks to diversify away from traditional sources. But development timelines remain uncertain, shaped by both geopolitical complexity and infrastructure needs.
What connects these regions is timing. Global supply growth is becoming harder to achieve in mature basins.
Decline rates, capital discipline, and regulatory pressures are all limiting expansion. That is pushing capital toward areas that can deliver new barrels, even if the path is more complex.
But this is not a return to unchecked exploration.
The approach is more measured, phased development strategies, partnerships to share risk and focus on commercially viable discoveries
Execution matters more than ever. Because in today’s market, resource potential alone is not enough.
Infrastructure, financing, and political stability determine whether these barrels actually reach the market.
These regions represent the next incremental supply, but also the uncertainty that comes with it.