Yemisi Izuora
The Nigerian stock market is expected to witness significant growth in 2025, with ongoing bank recapitalization efforts, new equity listings, and anticipated monetary policy easing by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), driving new expectations.
Managing Director of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited (ASAM), and former President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Olatunde Amolegbe, speaking on the expected impact projected a 39 per cent return on the All-Share Index (ASI).
Amolegbe, in his presentation at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) 2024 market review and 2025 projection tagged “In-Depth Evaluation of the capital market in 2024 and prognosis for 2025” held on Thursday in Lagos, this forecast is underpinned by ongoing bank recapitalization efforts, new equity listings, and anticipated monetary policy easing by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Amolegbe highlighted Nigeria’s relative market attractiveness as a key factor in attracting increased foreign portfolio inflows (FPI), provided stable policies are maintained. He noted that the bank recapitalization process is set to boost investor confidence, while high-profile listings such as Dangote Refinery are expected to enhance market liquidity and broaden investment opportunities.
The projected bullish trend in 2025 comes as investors position themselves ahead of 2024 fiscal year results and dividend declarations, particularly in the banking sector. However, Amolegbe cautioned that the market’s performance will depend on critical factors such as the country’s economic growth trajectory, monetary policy direction, and corporate earnings results.
ASAM anticipates a shift toward equities as fixed-income yields decline, driven by the CBN’s likely adoption of a more accommodative monetary stance. Despite lingering concerns over exchange rate volatility and inflation, conservative sectors such as banking, consumer goods, and industrials are expected to perform well, offering steady returns for investors.
In the palm oil industry, robust growth is forecast for key players such as Okomu Oil Palm Company (OKOMUOIL) and Presco Plc. Sustained global demand for palm oil, coupled with rising prices and improved production volumes, are projected to drive growth in the sector, with expected returns ranging between 18% and 25%. Presco’s recent bond issuance to fund its acquisition of Ghana Oil Palm Development Company Limited is seen as a strategic move that further solidifies its growth prospects.
The consumer goods sector is also set for a rebound, recovering from the inflationary challenges of 2024. ASAM’s positive outlook for the sector is based on expectations of lower inflation, a more stable foreign exchange environment, and supportive government policies. Proposed tax modifications in the Economic Stabilization Bill, along with access to trade credit facilities, are expected to foster a favorable business climate. Additionally, ongoing efforts by the CBN to narrow the gap between official and parallel exchange rates are likely to improve access to foreign exchange, benefiting companies in the consumer goods sector.
Overall, the 2025 outlook for the Nigerian stock market remains optimistic, bolstered by strategic reforms, policy adjustments, and improving investor confidence. While challenges such as exchange rate instability and inflation persist, key sectors are positioned to drive market performance and deliver strong returns for investors.