Uche Cecil Izuora
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may most likely going to pause its output increases for the fourth quarter of this year as analysts expect that the global oil body still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026.
According to analysts before the group decides how to unwind the cuts and return production to the market, it needs to review members’ oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.
This debate will likely happen later in 2026 and hence OPEC+ is likely to hold on to output increases in the last quarter sources earlier told Reuters.
Only the seven OPEC+ members who met on Sunday, plus the United Arab Emirates until it left OPEC in May, have been involved in monthly output decisions in recent years.
The seven countries will hold their next meeting on October 4.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October, it said in a statement, as the producer group needs to agree new quotas before deciding its next output steps.
The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+’s influence over prices and market share.
In August, OPEC+ agreed its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Despite the agreed production increases, the group made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still produces far below its targets because of the war.
“OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”
“The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027.”