Agency Report
As Africa’s economy surges towards US$7.7 trillion by 2050, up from US$3 trillion in 2024, the continent stands at an unprecedented energy crossroads. Development imperatives collide with climate urgency. With 42% of the continent’s 1.4 billion people lacking electricity access and abundant untapped resources in gas, oil, and renewable energy, Africa faces a unique challenge: providing energy to hundreds of millions of people whilst contributing to global climate goals.
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Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Energy Transition Outlook: 2024 – 25’ reveals four distinct pathways for Africa, ranging from a catastrophic 3°C delayed transition to an ambitious 1.5°C net-zero scenario. The continent’s emissions share will nearly double from 3.5% to 6.5% globally by 2050 in the base case. This trajectory makes Africa’s energy choices crucial for a sustainable future.
Improving clean energy access remains a clear priority across the continent. African nations must meet soaring demand whilst lowering indoor air pollution and mitigating health risks. This dual challenge requires immediate action and long-term strategic planning. The stakes extend far beyond regional boundaries.
Realising Africa’s climate and development objectives requires unprecedented low-cost financing innovation. Strategic deployment of the continent’s vast untapped renewable resources offers one pathway forward. Fossil fuel reserves could also fund the transition through careful management. These resources represent Africa’s competitive advantage in the global energy transformation. This extends beyond an African story alone – it represents the defining energy transition of current times.
Economic development vs climate change
Africa’s energy story defies simple narratives. The continent that holds nearly 10% of global LNG supply also has 630 million people without electricity access. This paradox defines both the challenge and extraordinary opportunity ahead.
Recent trends underscore the complexity. Oil and gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa grew 5% in 2024, driven by Nigeria, Senegal, Congo, Mozambique, and Côte d’Ivoire. Yet renewable installations declined, with solar capacity additions dropping to 3.5 GW from 4 GW in 2023. Most clean energy development remains concentrated in South Africa, highlighting uneven progress.
Africa’s GDP will grow from US$3 trillion in 2024 to US$7.7 trillion by 2050, driven by its service sector and burgeoning working-age population. This economic expansion occurs as the continent’s population increases 1.7 times by 2050, creating massive energy demand precisely when the world demands rapid decarbonisation. However, Africa’s per capita energy consumption remains far below global averages – roughly one-seventh that of China and one-tenth that of the US.
Four pathways to Africa’s energy future
Wood Mackenzie’s integrated analysis presents four distinct scenarios illuminating the complexity of Africa’s energy future. Each pathway reflects different levels of global co-operation, policy ambition, and investment commitment.
Delayed transition scenario
The delayed transition scenario paints a sobering 3°C warming world where geo-political tensions and reduced policy support stall decarbonisation efforts for five years. Governments prioritise energy security over global co-operation, driving up technology costs and delaying the transition. Africa reaches net zero only by the early 2080s, with emissions continuing to rise until the early 2030s.
Base case scenario
The base case scenario represents Wood Mackenzie’s most likely outcome, assuming current policies evolve gradually towards a 2.5°C warming trajectory. Africa achieves net zero by 2080, with emissions beginning to decline around 2027. This scenario incorporates natural policy evolution and technology advancement, reflecting the inertia inherent in global energy systems.
Country pledges scenario
The country pledges scenario assumes announced net-zero commitments materialise despite near-term challenges. This pathway aligns with below 2°C warming, with Africa achieving net zero by 2070 through incentive-based policies driving technological innovation and competition.
Net-zero scenario
The net-zero scenario requires immediate global action to limit warming to 1.5°C. Africa could potentially achieve net zero before 2060, benefitting from unprecedented global co-operation, rapid technology deployment, and massive investment flows. This pathway demands that sovereignty, security, and sustainability challenges are addressed in time and at the required pace.
The bioenergy transformation imperative
Perhaps nowhere is Africa’s energy complexity more evident than in its relationship with bioenergy. Traditional biomass currently accounts for 81% of residential, commercial, and agricultural energy demand across the continent. Whilst this might appear sustainable, the reality involves significant health risks from indoor air pollution and environmental degradation from unsustainable harvesting practices.
The transition away from traditional bioenergy presents both opportunity and challenge. Moving to electricity offers substantial efficiency gains, reducing primary energy required to meet demand whilst eliminating health risks. However, even in the base case scenario, bioenergy’s share in the residential sector only declines to 70% by 2050, primarily because clean fuel alternatives fail to scale rapidly enough to match population-driven demand growth.
Under the net-zero scenario, more aggressive action reduces bioenergy’s share to 50% by 2050, accompanied by significant deployment of efficient cookstoves. This transition requires not just technology deployment, but fundamental changes in energy infrastructure, financing mechanisms, and consumer behaviour