Yemisi Izuora
Russian has imposed new tax on its wheat exports which will increase procurement costs on African countries that rely increasingly on Russian wheat.
Africa may face higher import costs after Moscow reinstated its export tax on the grain, just as global supplies are expected to tighten in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Since July 8, Russian wheat exports have been subject to a tax of 370.1 rubles ($4.87) per ton, according to Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture.
The levy will remain in effect through July 15, when it may be revised. It had been set at zero since April 22.
According to Russian private news agency Interfax, the tax was reactivated after the indicative export price of Russian wheat rose from $233.8 to $239.4 per ton, exceeding the threshold that automatically triggers the duty.
Introduced in 2021, Russia’s export tax system applies a variable levy calculated each week from export contract prices registered on the Moscow Exchange.
The duty equals 70 per cent of the difference between a government-set reference price and the indicative export price.
As export prices climb above the threshold, the tax increases. When prices fall below it, the levy can drop to zero. Moscow says the mechanism is designed both to regulate exports and generate revenue to support domestic grain producers.
The return of the export tax comes as the global wheat market is expected to become less well supplied.
According to the latest projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat production will reach 820 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, down 3% from the previous season.
Meanwhile, global consumption is projected at about 824.5 million tons, remaining above production and keeping pressure on inventories. International wheat trade is also expected to decline by 6 per cent to 213.3 million tons, reflecting weaker exports from suppliers such as Australia and lower import demand in markets including Türkiye, Morocco, and Nigeria.
Taken together, these trends point to a market where supply and demand are likely to remain finely balanced. Any reduction in export availability from major suppliers could place additional upward pressure on international wheat prices.
Against this backdrop, the reintroduction of Russia’s export tax could modestly increase the cost of Russian wheat for overseas buyers.
The issue is particularly significant for Africa, where demand for Russian wheat has continued to expand.
According to Russia’s agricultural export agency Agroexport, countries in the East African Community (EAC) increased their imports of Russian wheat by 26% to 3.5 million tons during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Tanzania is among the African markets where Russia has steadily gained market share, alongside Kenya, Egypt, and Sudan.
With exports projected at 47 million tons in 2026/27, Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest wheat exporter, according to the USDA. As a result, changes to its export tax regime are likely to remain closely watched by importing countries, particularly across Africa.