Uche Cecil Izuora
The American Petroleum Institute (API) has called on nations to sustain investment in energy supply through the cycles as energy security measures have become increasingly critical with uncertainties over Middle East tensions.
The Institute said the U.S. energy system has helped mitigate the shock loss of oil and LNG supply from the Middle East when the Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic and sent refiners and gas importers worldwide scrambling for alternative supply.
The record American crude oil production and huge natural gas production and rising LNG exports were decades in the making, during which companies invested billions of dollars every year to increase oil, natural gas, and fuel supply, the API said in an analysis.
But the role of “the world’s energy stabilizer”, as API put it in its article, comes at a cost for the U.S. energy system. America’s inventories of crude oil and petroleum products have slumped below the five-year average for this time of year, leaving narrow margins of error in the production, refining, and export systems.
The disruption caused by the Iran war hasn’t gone away, but the record U.S. oil output and fuel exports have kept crude oil prices in check for most of the past five months, alongside perpetual market hopes that a resolution of the conflict is imminent.
“Markets remain tight, inventories are low and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and other key shipping lanes persists. Yet, America’s energy system has helped cushion what could have been a much more severe shock,” API said.
Since the shale revolution began, the U.S. oil and natural gas industry has invested about $150 billion every year in oil and natural gas upstream production alone, according to API’s estimates. Those investments, adding to billions more poured in pipelines, export terminals, and other critical infrastructure, fundamentally changed America’s role in global energy markets, the oil lobby says.
The U.S. role has indeed changed, with record crude oil production and exports, and record exports of fuels in recent months as the world is reeling from the crisis triggered by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The record-high exports are naturally depleting U.S inventory even as refineries run at very high utilization rates. This tightens the domestic market, leaving it vulnerable to a sudden supply disruption from a hurricane or a refinery stoppage. Middle distillate inventories in the United States are now 12 per cent below the five-year average according to the latest EIA petroleum status report.
Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are much higher than they were before the war. Due to the crude price surge on international markets, the national average gasoline price is now $4 per gallon about $1 higher than at the end of February before the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran and nearly $0.90 higher than at this time last year.
The path to a permanent de-escalation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the U.S. crude oil and fuel producing system will continue to offset some but not all supply from the Middle East that’s not making it to buyers these days.
The role of U.S. oil and gas production in helping stabilize global energy supply has been decades in the making, with continued investments in supply and infrastructure to bring this supply to markets.
“Today’s disruption is a reminder that energy security is built through investments made over many years and across changing market conditions,” the biggest oil lobby in America said.
“Today’s record production, world-class refining and America’s role in global markets are, in many ways, the result of those long-term investment decisions and have helped cushion consumers during today’s disruption.”
Going forward, supportive policies and continued investment would make the U.S. and the world more resilient to supply shocks, API notes.
“Preserving that advantage means continuing to create the conditions for long-term investment, infrastructure and domestic energy development so America is prepared for whatever comes next.”