Amidst the euphoria of a successful general elections, Nigeria’s economy has been forecast to be amongst top 20 largest in the world by 2030, according to Bloomberg report on new world economic order.
Nigeria is ranked 19th just above Netherlands, which is 20th in the forecast report.
Though this is a mark-down against the 2020 projected by the Federal Government under former President, Olusegun Obasanjo to arrive at the top 20, this is the first time such report is projecting Nigeria in the top global economies.
Also, Nigeria is the only African country on that listing. Recent global economy reports have placed Nigeria as one of the fastest growing economy in the world, a report which tallied with 2014 rebased gross domestic product, GDP, figures placing Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa, pushing South Africa to second position.
Analysis
The Bloomberg report was derived largely from Economic Research Services, ERS, the United States international economic development research agency’s latest global economic research report.
The ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set provides historical and projected data for 189 countries that account for more than 99 percent of the world economy.
Historical data are available for real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, inflation, population, and real exchange rates from 1969 to the most recent available year, and each variable is projected forward to 2030.
From this latest report, 15 years from now USA, though will still be in the number one position in economy size, will be far less dominant as several emerging markets will catapult into prominence, and some of the largest European economies will be slipping behind.
Global leader
China will remain power house of real growth, narrowing the gap with USA.
According to the report, USA will remain the global leader, with USD24.8 trillion in annual output, up from USD16.8 trillion GDP projected for 2015.
The country, worth 25 percent of the world economy in 2006 and 23 percent in 2015, will see its share decline to 20 percent.
China’s GDP will grow to more than twice its size today, helping the Asian powerhouse to almost entirely close its gap with USA.
Bloomberg analysis shows India, ranked eighth for 2015, climb past Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan to take third place in the world ranking.
The International Monetary Fund calls India “the bright spot in the global landscape.”
The country will have the largest workforce in the world within the next 15 years, the IMF notes, and among the youngest.