Uche Cecil Izuora
Commercial vessel traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz appeared to remain limited over the past day, amid uncertainty over prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
This has raised fears about prospects of possible supply rebound in the global market.
Just two inbound commercial transits were observed on Tuesday morning, following two outbound ships on Monday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Shipowners had recently become more optimistic about a pickup in traffic with guidance from the U.S., and Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency on Tuesday said 24 vessels transited the waterway over the past 24 hours after obtaining permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The figure is difficult to confirm independently because electronic interference and tracking gaps suggest the total may bundle smaller coastal craft with large commercial ships.
President Donald Trump is still hopeful the U.S. can reach an interim peace deal with Iran soon, after the Islamic Republic threatened to suspend talks because of Israel’s escalating attacks in Lebanon. Officials in Tehran are discussing their “final text” to send to the U.S., Iran’s Mehr news agency reported, citing a person close to the negotiating team. The report reiterated that the country’s negotiators were wary of the U.S., saying it had breached previous pledges.
An Iranian fuel carrier and a Chinese oil products tanker entered the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, after an Iranian liquefied petroleum gas carrier and a Turkish bulker exited the waterway on Monday.
Regional shipping patterns remain disrupted by the U.S. blockade of Iranian vessels in the Gulf of Oman. On Monday, American military officials reported that a total of 121 commercial ships have been rerouted.
Persistent AIS interference continues to obscure vessel movements, with transit counts likely to be revised as ships reappear beyond high-risk waters.
The U.S. naval presence may also be distorting the observations. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time.
Even before the U.S. barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca — around 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.