Uche Cecil Izuora
Italian oil major Eni has expressed the belief that Africa could play a larger role in global energy security as renewed conflict in the Middle East raises the risk of another oil price surge.
In an interview with Italian financial daily Il Sole 24 Ore, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi warned that oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel by early next year if the conflict continues, adding that such an increase would fuel global inflation and weaken energy demand.
Descalzi made the comments after hostilities between the United States and Iran resumed just weeks after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18. “We all believed the United States and Iran had found a solution. In reality, the return of war was an event waiting to happen,” he said. According to the Eni chief, the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz marks a turning point for global energy security.
“There is now a before and an after Hormuz,” he said, arguing that growing risks around key maritime chokepoints will permanently raise transportation costs, financing expenses, and insurance premiums.
So far, coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves by members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have helped limit price increases.
However, Descalzi warned that this approach cannot continue indefinitely.
Global oil inventories have fallen by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day since the conflict began, with the decline accelerating to 4.6 million barrels per day in May 2026.
The conflict has also forced oil tankers to bypass both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by sailing around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The detour has extended shipping times by 10 to 14 days while increasing freight costs and insurance premiums.
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is adding further pressure to global energy markets.
As more data centers come online, electricity demand continues to rise, increasing the need for reliable and diversified energy supplies, Descalzi said.
To address these risks, Descalzi argued that “the long-term solution is greater energy security through diversification of supply sources and transport routes.”
He urged global energy buyers to source more oil and gas from producers in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia while reducing reliance on strategically exposed maritime routes.
According to Eni’s 2025 annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 19 per cent of the company’s global production, while Libya represented about 10 per cent.
Not all forecasters share Eni’s outlook, however. In projections published on July 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast Brent crude at around $65 per barrel in 2027, $15 lower than its June forecast.
The Agency expects global production to recover gradually and trade flows to normalize following the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.