Ecofin Agency
- Multinationals have taken different routes out of, or reduced their exposure to, Nigeria since 2020, including asset sales, shifts to third-party distribution, changes in manufacturing and portfolio restructuring.
- Several of the exits and restructurings occurred during the 2023-24 macroeconomic shock, but Nigeria’s external position, inflation, foreign-exchange market and economic growth have improved since then.
- Foreign capital inflows have recovered strongly, reaching $23.22 billion in 2025 and $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, but foreign direct investment remained a small share of those inflows.
A succession of multinational companies has reduced, restructured or ended parts of their operations in Nigeria since 2020, with the latest case being Uber’s decision to discontinue its operations in the country on September 2, 2026, after 12 years.
The companies have taken different approaches. Shoprite sold 100% of its Nigerian retail subsidiary, Retail Supermarkets Nigeria Limited, to Ketron Investment in 2021, while the transaction allowed the business to continue using the Shoprite brand under a franchise arrangement. Equinor completed the sale of all its Nigerian assets to Chappal Energies in December 2024 for up to $1.2 billion, marking a complete exit from the country.
Shell took a different route, completing the sale of its onshore subsidiary, Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, to Renaissance in March 2025 while retaining its deepwater, integrated gas and Nigeria LNG interests. Diageo similarly sold its 58.02% stake in Guinness Nigeria to Tolaram in 2024 but retained ownership of the Guinness brand and continued its premium spirits business in Nigeria.
Other companies have reduced their direct operating footprint. GSK currently operates in Nigeria under a third-party distribution model, while Procter & Gamble said in December 2023 that it would move Nigeria to an import-only model. P&G’s chief financial officer, Andre Schulten, made the announcement at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference in New York, citing the difficulty of operating as a dollar-denominated company in Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment.
Kimberly-Clark announced in May 2024 that it would exit Nigeria, close its manufacturing facility and commercial office in Lagos, and stop manufacturing, marketing and selling Huggies and Kotex in the country. The company attributed the decision to both globally refocused strategic priorities and economic developments in Nigeria.
Uber’s case is different. On September 2, 2026, the company discontinued its Nigerian and Ugandan operations after reviewing its “evolving business priorities and investment focus” across Africa. Uber did not identify Nigeria’s macroeconomic conditions as the reason for the withdrawal and said the decision did not affect its other African markets. The exit therefore should not be treated as direct evidence that the current Nigerian economic environment caused the company to leave.
The concentration of several corporate restructuring decisions around 2023 and 2024 nevertheless coincided with a major deterioration in Nigeria’s operating environment. The liberalization of the foreign-exchange market triggered a sharp adjustment in the naira, while the removal of fuel subsidies added to inflationary and operating-cost pressures. Companies also faced higher local-currency costs for imported inputs and other dollar-linked expenses.
Foreign-exchange access has since improved. S&P Global Ratings said in May 2026 that the naira was largely market-determined, FX backlogs had largely been cleared and banks, companies and households had continued market-based access to foreign exchange. The agency said the naira was trading at about ₦1,360 to the dollar in May 2026, compared with about ₦1,595 in May 2025. Monthly FX market turnover averaged $8.6 billion in 2025, 56.4% higher than in 2024, while dollar supply reached $10 billion in April 2026.
Nigeria’s external buffers have also strengthened. The IMF said gross international reserves increased from $40.2 billion at end-2024 to $45.8 billion at end-2025, while net international reserves rose from $23 billion to $35 billion. Gross reserves reached about $49 billion on a 30-day moving average by the end of March 2026. The country also recorded a current-account surplus equivalent to 4.8% of GDP in 2025.
Inflation has followed a similar path. Using Nigeria’s rebased consumer-price index, the IMF estimated that annual-average inflation fell from 33.2% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. Inflation reached 15.1% year-on-year in February 2026 before rising to 15.4% in March as higher international food and fuel prices began affecting domestic prices.
Economic growth has also strengthened. Real GDP grew by 3.87% in 2025, compared with 3.38% in 2024. Growth increased to 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.43% in the second quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The second-quarter expansion was supported by stronger performances in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
Credit-rating agencies have also incorporated the improvement into their assessments. S&P upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating to B from B- in May 2026, citing an improving macroeconomic profile, higher oil production and prices, increased domestic refining capacity and the effects of exchange-rate liberalization. In August, Moody’s revised Nigeria’s outlook from stable to positive, citing stronger foreign-exchange reserves and better-than-expected economic growth, while maintaining the country’s B3 rating.
The improvement in macroeconomic indicators changes how the corporate exits should be interpreted. Several companies that restructured their Nigerian operations during 2023 and 2024 did so against a backdrop of sharp currency adjustment, high inflation and limited foreign-exchange liquidity, although the reasons differed by company. Those conditions have eased in several respects by 2026, although inflationary and fiscal pressures remain.
The foreign-capital data provide another measure of the change. Nigeria attracted $23.22 billion in foreign capital in 2025, up from $12.32 billion in 2024, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. However, $19.74 billion of the 2025 inflows came from portfolio investment, while foreign direct investment amounted to $923 million. FDI therefore accounted for less than 4% of total capital imported during the year.
The trend continued in the first quarter of 2026. Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in foreign capital, an 83.8% increase from $5.64 billion in the same quarter of 2025. But portfolio investment accounted for $9.86 billion, or 95.1% of the total, while FDI was only $135.08 million, equivalent to 1.3%.
The corporate record also does not support treating every multinational withdrawal as a direct response to Nigeria’s macroeconomic conditions. Equinor’s sale was a complete country exit, while Shell and Diageo restructured their Nigerian holdings without leaving the market entirely. GSK moved to third-party distribution, P&G shifted toward imports, Kimberly-Clark cited both global strategy and Nigerian economic developments, and Uber attributed its 2026 withdrawal to broader investment priorities in Africa.
The six-year pattern therefore points to several forces operating at different times and across different sectors. The 2023-24 macroeconomic shock increased the cost and complexity of operating in Nigeria, particularly for businesses exposed to foreign currency and imported inputs. At the same time, multinational groups have continued to reassess portfolios, ownership structures, manufacturing footprints and distribution models independently of the macroeconomic cycle.
Nigeria enters the second half of 2026 with stronger foreign-exchange reserves, improved FX-market functioning, lower inflation than in 2024 and faster economic growth. The investment data, however, indicate that the recovery in foreign capital remains dominated by portfolio flows rather than direct investment