The Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, Eric Nuttal, has predicted that inventories of crude oil will reach an 8-year low by the end of this year.
While persistent fear of China’s stuttering crude oil demand and the boogeyman of high interest rates are periodically dragging down oil prices, the recent price rally in crude oil has been fairly substantial. “When you boil it all down, our measurement of the health of the oil market comes down to oil inventories—globally,” Nuttall told BNN Bloomberg TV.
Using Kpler tracking data, “real time data as of this morning: global oil inventories are at an 8-month low. We expect between now and year end they will fall to an 8-year low due to strong demand still,” says Nuttal, who added that demand can be measured in real time.
Nuttal also referenced last weeks’ biggest crude oil inventory draw in the history of the United States.
“When we look between now and year end, there’s a strong fundamental support we think at about $80 given where inventories are now and we think we should strengthen as we go throughout the year.”
When speaking about recession fears, Nuttal pointed out that only twice in history has oil demand faltered during Covid and during the Great Financial Crisis. All other recessions merely saw a slowdown in oil demand growth, not a dip in oil demand itself.
The IEA’s medium-term report released in June predicts that world oil demand is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years on high prices and supply security issues push the world to fast-track their energy transition efforts.