By News Ghana
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is set to surge from 2027, driven by new projects and expanded production in the United States and Qatar, according to Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030.
The forecast projects global supply reaching 594 million tons by 2030, a 42 percent increase from 2024, with a projected 15 million ton oversupply in international markets.
The global LNG market is forecast to enter a phase of oversupply from 2027 onward, driven by new liquefaction projects coming online.
More than 174 million metric tons of annual gas liquefaction capacity is currently under construction. While geopolitical risks and potential project delays could shift this balance, the market is poised to become increasingly oversupplied by the end of this decade.
While geopolitical risks and potential project delays could shift this balance, the prospect of sustained LNG surplus poses a critical question for Africa: how can the continent strengthen domestic gas value chains to shield itself from global market volatility?
The looming glut underscores a strategic challenge for African nations seeking to balance export revenue with domestic energy security.
Africa’s natural gas production is rising, with several new LNG projects coming online across the continent. North Africa currently produces two thirds of the continent’s gas, but the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2026 Outlook projects this share falling to 40 percent by 2035 as sub Saharan output accelerates.
The Chamber noted that by 2050, sub Saharan LNG supply could be four times current levels, while African gas demand is forecast to grow 60 percent, from 55 billion cubic meters in 2020 to about 90 billion cubic meters. Despite this demand growth, most African gas continues to flow overseas due to limited infrastructure.
The Chamber explained that limited pipeline networks, weak transmission systems and inadequate processing and storage capacity mean domestic markets remain underserved, making LNG exports the most bankable option. Export projects benefit from long term offtake agreements and easier access to international financing, while domestic infrastructure requires patient capital, government guarantees and regulatory support that are often harder to secure.
Recent developments suggest positive momentum toward a more integrated African gas economy, with countries constructing terminals to support domestic and regional access, including projects at Richards Bay in South Africa and the Port of Nador in Morocco.
Ethiopia signed a landmark agreement to advance the Gas by Rail Economic Corridor Initiative, a 73,500 kilometer freight railway system designed to carry LNG to more than 40 sub Saharan nations.
The network is designed to transport liquefied natural gas across 40 sub Saharan nations, serving over 1.2 billion people with a freight rail system. Proponents describe the rail corridor as a virtual pipeline that can circumvent the complex geopolitical and engineering challenges that have hindered traditional pipeline projects for years.
Several major pipeline projects are underway, including the $25 billion Nigeria Morocco Gas Pipeline traversing 13 West African states, the Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline connecting Nigeria to Algeria, and the $1.5 billion Mozambique Zambia pipeline announced in 2025. Senegal is developing a multi phase gas network linking offshore production to power plants, industrial zones and urban areas.
Ghana plans five multi purpose petrochemical plants, each producing 90,000 barrels per day of chemicals including fertilizers and lubricants to support industrial and agricultural development. The expansion of domestic processing capacity represents a shift toward capturing more value from gas resources within producing countries.
Gas to power is emerging as a central pillar of national energy strategies, with the African Energy Chamber projecting natural gas will supply 45 percent of the continent’s electricity by 2050. Countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana and Mozambique are positioning gas as a bridge fuel to expand electricity access, support industry and reduce reliance on dirtier fuels.
NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, emphasized that export projects alone will not secure Africa’s energy future. He stated that strategic investment in gas infrastructure will determine whether rising production translates into electricity access, industrial capacity and economic resilience.
Demand growth will be led by Asia, particularly mainland China and India, as countries in the region seek to lower emissions and expand their gas grids. By the fourth quarter of 2026, gas prices in Europe and Asia are set to fall below $10 per million British thermal units.
As global LNG markets grow more crowded, Africa’s ability to redirect gas toward domestic power, industry and regional trade is increasingly seen as key to shielding its energy sector from external shocks. The continent faces a pivotal choice between continuing to prioritize exports or investing strategically in infrastructure that can transform resource growth into long term economic gains and expanded energy access for millions