Uche Cecil Izuora
As the war in Iran progresses, a new report has revealed that there is no quick solution to address emerging energy crisis arising from the conflict.
A report by S&P Global Energy, “Africa After the Iran War: Building Resilience for the Next 20 Years,” highlights the complexity of the crisis and how it is expected to reshape global energy policy. With supply disrupted and crude prices surging, the report suggests there is no quick solution, with markets requiring time to recover. Over the long term, energy security is expected to take precedence over affordability, as consumers diversify supply chains and pursue greater flexibility.
Already, the prolonged U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is driving a structural reset in how countries price risk, secure supply and allocate capital across the energy system.
The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war has entered a prolonged phase with no clear resolution, as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran continue to stall. Recent developments indicate negotiations remain deadlocked, even as pressure mounts for a broader agreement to de-escalate tensions.
With roughly 20 per cent of global oil and gas trade exposed to disruption and Gulf producers facing constrained output, the conflict is no longer a short-term geopolitical shock – it is evolving into a structural force that will shape energy policy, investment decisions and market behavior for decades to come.
The Gulf conflict is having significant implications for global oil markets. Approximately 20–21 million bpd of crude oil and refined products transit the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly 15 million bpd currently at risk due to its closure.
Up to 6 million bpd of refining capacity and 4 million bpd of refined product flows are also at risk, leaving import-reliant countries across Asia and Africa increasingly vulnerable.
On the ground, the situation continues to deteriorate. Iran has signaled it will maintain pressure on maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz until a resolution is reached.
In response, the U.S. has implemented a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels. Markets have reacted accordingly: Brent crude prices surged by as much as 7% following reports that Washington is considering military action to break the diplomatic impasse. The result is a tightening global supply environment layered onto existing constraints across Middle Eastern exports.
For global energy markets, the most immediate shift is a reprioritization of energy security over cost efficiency. While systems have historically favored affordability, the ongoing Gulf conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities of this model, as constrained supplies and rising prices place additional strain on economies. Governments have already shown a willingness to absorb higher costs to secure reliable access to fuel – whether through strategic reserves, long-term contracts or domestic production incentives.
Africa offers a clear example of this trend. South Africa introduced a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy of R3 to provide short-term relief for households facing rising fuel prices, while Zambia suspended excise duties and removed Value Added Tax on petrol and diesel imports for three months starting April 2026. Ghana is expected to remove certain fuel taxes and charges along the supply chain and is seeking alternative supplies, particularly from Nigeria. While these measures place additional pressure on national budgets, they demonstrate governments’ willingness to prioritize supply over cost.
A second-order effect is the rapid acceleration of energy diversification and flexibility. The ongoing conflict has underscored how countries are no longer comfortable with concentrated exposure to a single region or transport route, prompting efforts to secure alternative supplies and reduce dependence on chokepoints such as Hormuz. Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines are exploring increased imports from Russia, while India is scaling up imports from Nigeria. South Africa has ramped up imports from the U.S., while East African markets are considering alternative supply routes.
While these trends reflect a short-term scramble to secure supplies, they also point to a broader structural shift in global markets.
Alongside diversification, flexibility has become a clear priority. Shorter contract durations, optionality in cargo destinations and modular infrastructure are gaining traction, while capital is expected to increasingly flow toward projects that can adapt to changing market conditions.
“This conflict is forcing a reset in how the world values energy. Security, reliability and sovereignty are moving ahead of price in the decision-making hierarchy.
For Africa, this is a moment to position itself as a stable supplier in a market actively seeking alternatives,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war is not just a geopolitical crisis – it is a catalyst for systemic change. Energy policy is becoming more defensive, investment more selective and supply chains more complex. Even if hostilities ease, the structural adjustments underway are likely to persist, reshaping the global energy landscape well beyond the immediate conflict.