Joseph Bakare
The Presidential Task Force (PTF on COVID-19) has listed Lagos, Kaduna and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), as accounting for 70 per cent of COVID-19 infections in the country.
This was disclosed by Chairman of PTF and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mr Boss Mustapha, during a briefing on Monday, in Abuja.
He stated that two major indicators highlight the current increase in COVID-19 cases and transmission across the country.
“Over the past four briefings, the PTF has been raising the alert flag on the rising number of infections in the country and the possibility of a second wave arriving at our shores.
“Recent epidemiology records confirm to the PTF that Nigeria is now facing a rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases nationwide; which is similar to the second wave of infections occurring in other countries across the world. Particularly, Lagos, Kaduna and the FCT have emerged as the new epicentres during this period; with over 70 per cent of all confirmed cases,” he said.
The SGF said that, though the country’s testing numbers were fast approaching the peak recorded in July 2020; the number of cases being reported were disproportionately higher
“For example, in the FCT, despite recording an increase of 85 per cent in tests conducted over the last week; the number of confirmed cases increased by 285 per cent during the same period. These trends point to a higher Test Positivity Rate (TPR) – the number of positive cases detected as a proportion of all tests.
“The TPR was below five per cent through September and October…We recorded a low point of three per cent nationally in late October. However, recent trends in cases have seen this number increase to 10 per cent in the second week of December.”
Additionally, Mustapha said that the high numbers were further reflected in the increase of admissions to COVID-19 treatment centres and fatalities, particularly in the three epicentre states.
“The result of the analysis carried out by the PTF further indicate that the current pattern of spread and the surge is likely to be driven by the following factors. The lack of compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions, particularly the disregard for mask use in public; large gatherings as a result of events linked to the yuletide season and recent civil demonstrations. Further disregard for other public health preventive measures, such as hand hygiene and physical distance requirements,” he said.
He cited some activities and assumptions which had resulted in an increase in the infection rate among young people; who were subsequently infecting older and more vulnerable family members.
“From our assessment, the current situation is clearly the consequences of certain occurrences and events of the last few weeks.”
Also, Mustapha revealed that a sudden increase in social gatherings involving large congregations from different parts of the country; or even the world, at events such as weddings, religious activities, political rallies, conferences; or end of year celebrations could increase the spread.
“These events, classified globally as ‘supers-spreader events’, make the risk of a single infection causing a large outbreak among attendees significantly higher. Furthermore, as we reopened the economy, we experienced increased economic, social and religious gatherings and activities; all of which have combined to play a part in viral transmissions.
“These include the opening of the international airspace in September 2020 – while the average number of daily imported infections into the country in the last 90 days is estimated to be about seven cases, compared to 100-150 reported new infections in the community since the beginning of community transmission.”
He added that the test positivity rate in travellers arriving Lagos had recently doubled to 6.3 per cent; adding that with the resumption of schools, outbreaks have been reported in some schools following the resumption of physical classes.