Uche Cecil Izuora
In a strategic plan to achieve sustainable energy supply New Lines Institute based in Washington has proposed Four Seas Initiative which is a network of pipelines and transport links connecting the Persian Gulf, Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Caspian regions through Syria and Turkey.
The plan seeks to develop Syria and Turkey into major energy distribution hubs, thus bypassing Strait of Hormuz.
The plan envisions mobilizing up to $10 billion in infrastructure investment and eventually transporting up to 4 million barrels per day of oil and up to 50 bcm of natural gas annually to Europe.
Supporters argue the project could boost European energy security, attract Gulf investment, and generate billions of dollars in annual transit and production revenues for Syria.
The initiative follows extended disruption caused by the US-Iran conflict highlights a need for diversifying energy export routes to reduce dependency on shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.
The Four Seas Initiative outlines an expansive framework for redirecting energy export flows in ways that can lessen European dependence on Russian and Iranian oil and gas while directing investment from Gulf states toward Western-aligned infrastructure projects.
The initiative – spanning the Persian Gulf, along with the Black, Caspian and Mediterranean seas strives to expand overland export routes out of the Gulf toward Syria and Turkey, via Iraq and Jordan. An ancillary component calls for connecting new export routes with export networks in the Caspian and Black Sea basins.
“The post-Assad stabilization of Syria opens a narrow but historically decisive window to transform the Levant from a theater of energy conflict into a continental energy corridor,” states a concept paper published by the New Lines Institute (NLI).
“The Four Seas Initiative would deliver four compounding strategic goods: European energy sovereignty from Russian and Iranian dependence; American commercial primacy in the Middle East’s most strategically leveraged infrastructure; Syrian economic reconstruction underwritten by transit revenues; and a durable geopolitical settlement that rewards alignment with the West,”
The Four Seas concept is modeled after a similar framework in which 13 European Union member states are participating, dubbed the Three Seas Initiative.
Launched in 2015, the Three Seas promotes connectivity in a variety of economic spheres, including energy, transportation and digital infrastructure.
The Four Seas plan calls for the establishment of an infrastructure consortium capable of mobilizing up to $10 billion to build pipelines along the Gulf-Mediterranean corridor.
Once built out, the new exports routes are envisioned as being able to transport up to 4 million barrels of oil per day of oil and up to 50 billion cubic meters per year of gas to Mediterranean and European markets.
This would enable Syria to generate from $8 billion to $12 billion annually in combined production and transit revenues, providing a steady revenue stream to rebuild the country.
Experts at the June 11 launch event in Washington lauded the Four Seas as realistic. But some pointed out that implementation still faces considerable challenges.
“We see the need to find alternative routes to get things [energy] out,” said Robert F. Cekuta, a retired US diplomat who served as ambassador to Azerbaijan. “This is also a way to bring Syria back into the [community] of nations; it has been self-isolated for way too long.
The downside is that you have to get people to sit down and get into the practicalities, to get into details to help make this happen, in terms of corporate relations, get companies involved, not just the oil companies, but the construction companies.”