A new research has predicted possible oil production disruptions in Nigeria and Libya a situation that will further cut output from major oil wells.
According to oil and gas analysts at BMI Research Nigeria and Libya are at ‘high risk’ of oil sector disruption, especially towards the end of 2018.
The report considers Nigeria’s 2019 general elections as a major factor that could lead to militants attack on oil infrastructures.
The report added that, “While this remains a year away and potential candidates are unclear, if Buhari chooses to run again or suggests an alternative candidate from the north of the country, it will not sit well with the militant groups of the south,” the analysts added.
BMI highlighted that the Niger Delta Avengers group has already singled out the Egina FPSO as a potential target for attacks, among other infrastructure across the south. In 2016, Niger Delta Avenger attacks on Nigeria’s energy infrastructure threatened the country’s production and power supply.
Similarly, “Libya is exploring the possibility of elections at some point over 2018. While our core view here is that elections will be pushed into 2019, militant factions across the country will need to align support with their favoured presidential candidate and will likely turn to disrupting oil infrastructure to gain leverage,” the analysts said in a brief research note sent to Rigzone.