Richard Ginika Izuora
A report by the Council on Foreign Relations, CFR, and the Harvard Kennedy School in the United States has said that Nigeria is on the brink of disintegration and currently at the point of no return.
The reports expressed fears that Nigeria currently bears all the signs of a failed nation.
They made the disclosure in a research released through its senior fellow and former US Ambassador to Nigeria; Mr. John Campbell and Mr. Robert Rotberg who is the Founding Director, Harvard Kennedy School’s Programme on Intrastate Conflict.
Rotberg, is also president emeritus, World Peace Foundation.
They declared that Nigeria is in a state from which it would eventually collapse.
The report says the outcome of the study is not based on emotion or using high-sounding words but was based on empirical data and evidence.
“Nigeria has long teetered on the precipice of failure. But now, unable to keep its citizens safe and secure, Nigeria has become a fully failed state of critical geopolitical concern.
“Its failure matters because the peace and prosperity of Africa and preventing the spread of disorder and militancy around the globe depend on a stronger Nigeria. Its economy is usually estimated to be Africa’s largest or second largest, after South Africa. Long West Africa’s hegemon, Nigeria played a positive role in promoting African peace and security.
“With state failure, it can no longer sustain that vocation, and no replacement is in sight. Its security challenges are already destabilising the West African region in the face of resurgent jihadism; making the battles of the Sahel that much more difficult to contain.
“And spillover from Nigeria’s failures ultimately affects the security of Europe and the United States. Indeed, thoughtful Nigerians over the past decade have debated, often fervently, whether their state has failed. Increasingly, their consensus is that it has.’’
Equally important, the report disclosed that the signs on ground; especially the government’s inability to rein in the worsening state of insecurity, is hard evidence of a failed state.
“All failed states harbor some form of violent internal strife, such as civil war or insurgency. Nigeria now confronts six or more internal insurrections…The inability of the Nigerian state to provide peace and stability to its people has tipped a hitherto very weak state into failure.
“According to political theory, the government’s inability to thwart the Boko Haram insurgency is enough to diagnose Nigeria as a failed state. But there are many more symptoms. At a bare minimum, citizens expect their states to keep them secure from external attack and to keep them safe within their borders.
“The bargain that subjects long ago made with their sovereigns was being kept from harm in exchange for allegiance and taxation. When that quid pro quo breaks down, a state loses its coherence; its social fabric disintegrates, and warring factions subvert the social contract that should provide the fundamental foundation of the state.
“Nigeria now appears to have reached the point of no return. Indeed, few parts of Nigeria are today fully safe,” said the report.