Uche Cecil Izuora
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026, reflecting gradual recovery efforts in the upstream sector.
The figure was contained in a data submitted by the country to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and published in the group’s February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released yesterday.
Despite the rise, Nigeria failed to meet its assigned oil production quota for the sixth consecutive time in January 2026.
The report, published mid-Wednesday, showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output fell to 1.478 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, representing a 1.27 percent decline from 1.497 million bpd recorded in December 2025, based on secondary sources.
The decline highlighted persistent constraints on Nigeria’s production capacity, including infrastructure bottlenecks, crude theft, security challenges and operational inefficiencies across key oil-producing regions.
OPEC compiled production figures using two channels: direct communication from member countries and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms.
While secondary source data showed a decline in Nigeria’s output, figures submitted through direct communication presented a slightly more positive trend, though still below the country’s assigned quota.
According to OPEC, Nigeria’s production quota stands at 1.5 million bpd, meaning the January output reflected a shortfall of about 80,000 bpd.
The January output represented an increase of 37,000 bpd compared to December 2025 production of 1.422 million bpd, marking a rebound from November’s level of 1.420 million bpd and a return to growth at the start of the new year.
Data based on direct communication showed that Nigeria averaged 1.345 million bpd in 2024.
Production improved in 2025 to an annual average of 1.453 million bpd, according to OPEC, reflecting gradual recovery efforts in the upstream sector. However, OPEC’s calculation is based on only oil production and not condensate output.
The 37,000 bpd month-on-month increase in January is one of the more notable upward adjustments among OPEC members for the period under review.
Nigeria’s performance placed it behind only Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait within the organisation based on direct communication figures.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, raised its output by 16,000 bpd to 10.1 million bpd in January from 10.084 million bpd in December.
Iraq also increased production by 16,000 bpd to 4.097 million bpd, while the UAE recorded a 10,000 bpd rise to 3.383 million bpd. Libya posted a 6,000 bpd increase to 1.378 million bpd.
Besides, Algeria trimmed output by 1,000 bpd to 971,000 bpd, while Congo reduced production by 6,000 bpd to 275,000 bpd. Equatorial Guinea and Gabon remained among the smallest producers in the group.
Despite struggling crude output, Nigeria continued to rank as the leading oil producer in the cartel, ahead of Libya, Algeria, Congo and Equatorial Guinea based on declared figures.
Nigeria has sustained efforts to stabilise crude production through enhanced pipeline surveillance, clampdown on oil theft and gradual reactivation of previously shut-in wells as the country’s production had been constrained by vandalism, security challenges in the Niger Delta and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.