Yemisi Izuora
Major African economies, including Nigeria are recovering from policy-induced troubles, ranging from a debt binge, money printing, high inflation, to political instability and structurally constraining institutionalism.
Nigeria is projecting itself for better times with higher expansion after macroeconomic stabilisation, tax reforms.
With the economy stabilising, the country will be aiming for growth over the medium term, although its US$1trn GDP goal will take longer to achieve, according to Center For African Studies (CAS) report.
Political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections in January have started in earnest.
The deployment of US troops in February 2026 (after US airstrikes in late December 2025) to help the authorities in its fight against Islamist terrorism (which hitherto overwhelmed the government’s efforts) will be a key factor in the presidential poll, with Bola Tinubu, the incumbent, set to face a strong opposition, amid a more than significant risk of military coup attempts by mostly northern Muslim military and civilian actors who desire a shift of power to the north from the south.
Tinubu, whose ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party has control of the federal parliament, signed into law an amended electoral legislation in February 2026 that may allow him wield the powers of incumbency to his advantage.
A capital markets boom is expected in 2026, as the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote crude oil refinery plans to list on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), with the government also planning to list state-owned oil company NNPC Limited, as well as sell key government assets.
While international oil companies have been selling off onshore assets to domestic operators, they have been increasing investment in deep offshore fields, in part due to targeted fiscal incentives by the government.
The economy will sustainably grow by at least 4 per cent on average over the medium term.