Yemisi Izuora
Nigeria is planning to reduce its dependence on fish imports, with local supply meeting just 39 per cent of annual demand of more than 3.6 million tons.
Government has established a technical committee with eight weeks ultimatum to propose a roadmap to boost production, processing and distribution.
Minister of Marine and Blue Economy Adegboyega Oyetola said, “Nigeria can no longer depend so heavily on imported fish when we have the resources and human capacity needed to expand domestic production and strengthen food security.”
Nigeria’s fish deficit is not only a food security issue. It also creates a sizable opportunity for domestic companies. The federal government currently estimates the gap between national demand and available annual supply at nearly 2.2 million tons.
The supply shortfall creates an immediate opportunity for import substitution. Nigeria imports significant volumes of frozen fish. In 2025, the country spent about $1.2 billion on fish imports to help cover its deficit.
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, the total value of Norwegian seafood exports to Nigeria reached 524 million Norwegian kroner, or about $56 million, in 2025. Whole frozen herring and mackerel accounted for the largest share of those exports.
In 2024, imports of frozen herring alone reached 84,977 tons, valued at $119.1 million, according to Comtrade data compiled by the World Bank. Nigeria imports fish from about a dozen countries, including the Netherlands, Russia, Germany, the Faroe Islands, China and Japan.
An increase in local production could therefore gradually replace some of those foreign purchases, reduce spending on fish imports and conserve foreign exchange, a goal already reflected in Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture policies.
The opportunity extends well beyond new fish farms. The value chain offers several entry points for local companies, including feed production, local equipment manufacturing and alternatives to imported equipment, fingerling production, farming, processing, smoking, cold storage, transportation and distribution.
Catfish illustrates the scale of the industry. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO, describes Nigeria as the world’s largest producer of African catfish. In its June 2026 report, Nigeria: Improving catfish farming: The investment case for data-led decision-making and best management practices in fish farming, the FAO said annual production is close to 1.2 million tons.
The size of the supply gap illustrates the commercial opportunity. Using the FAO’s estimated catfish value of about $4 per kilogram, production sufficient to close the 2.2-million-ton gap would theoretically represent a gross market worth several billion dollars. This extrapolation is not an estimate of achievable revenue, but it illustrates the potential scale of the market.
FAO programs implemented in Nigeria through FISH4ACP since 2021 suggest that targeted investment can deliver measurable results. FISH4ACP is an initiative of the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States aimed at making fisheries and aquaculture value chains more sustainable.
FISH4ACP said it invested $550,000 with 500 producers across five fish-farming clusters. Those interventions generated about $850,000 in additional annual value added, while production increased 5% and costs fell 10%. The benefit-cost ratio reached 1.54, with a return on investment in less than eight months.
Prices, Food Security and Jobs
The stakes are particularly high in a country of 237.5 million people, according to the latest World Bank data. An increase in local supply could help reduce pressure on fish prices caused by scarcity, logistics costs and fluctuations in the naira.
Aquaculture is already a significant source of economic activity. The FAO highlights its potential to create jobs and business opportunities, particularly for women and young people. In the catfish segment alone, about 300,000 producers are already involved, supporting nearly one million jobs, according to FISH4ACP data.
The government’s challenge is therefore not to produce the additional 2.2 million tons itself, but to create the conditions for private investment to expand supply. Access to credit, the availability of feed and fingerlings, cold-chain infrastructure, processing capacity and access to markets will be critical.
If those constraints are addressed, Nigeria’s fish deficit could become more than a supply problem. It could become a sizable import-substitution opportunity and a new growth market for Nigerian investors and businesses.