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Yemisi Izuora
Oil prices rose on Monday as U.S. markets tightened just weeks ahead of Washington’s plan to impose new sanctions against Iran, with U.S. bank J.P. Morgan warning of price spikes abvoe $90 per barrel in coming months.
Brent crude futures were at $79.71 per barrel up by 91 cents, or 1.2 percent, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude futures rose by 75 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $71.53 a barrel.
The market was “increasingly concerned about dwindling (U.S.) inventories,” ANZ bank said on Monday.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest level since early 2015. And while output remains around the record of 11 million barrels per day (bpd), recent subdued U.S. drilling activity points towards a slowdown.
The tightening U.S. market came ahead of sanctions that Washington plans to implement against Iran’s petroleum exports from early November.
Many analysts expect a drop of more than 1 million bpd of Iranian crude exports, while J.P. Morgan expects expecting a loss of 1.5 million bpd.
The Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Iran is a member, as well as top producer Russia are discussing raising output by 500,000 bpd to counter falling supply from Iran, although no decision has been made public yet.
“We expect that those OPEC countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.
J.P. Morgan said in its latest market outlook, published late on Friday, that “a spike to $90 per barrel is likely” for oil prices in the coming months due to the Iran sanctions.
The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $85 and $76 per barrel, respectively, over the next six months.
Meanwhile, the OPEC, oil cartel raised its global production forecast Sunday based on higher-than-predicted US output in a report outlining a long-term rise in net demand, particularly in developing countries.
In its annual World Oil Outlook, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast world supply of all hydrocarbons (primarily oil and liquified natural gas) would rise from a current 98.4 million barrels per day (mbd) to 104.5 million by 2023, and 111.9 million by 2040.
The figures are higher than last year’s forecast, with rising production in non-cartel states led by the United States a major factor.
Non-member production overall is forecast to rise by 8.6 mbd to 66.1 mbd by 2023 on higher global demand, the report added, but a relative tapering off from 2020 will see cartel members’ crude production shrug off a medium-term trend fall, OPEC predicted.
The body said demand would continue rising despite electric-powered vehicles taking an increasing market share and political moves to champion renewable energy.
Even so, OPEC predicted a dip in demand growth between 2035 and 2040.
While viewing high demand as healthy, the organisation noted that the trend was fuelled by developing countries undergoing major demographic and general economic expansion.
In contrast, OPEC said demand for oil in OECD countries would fall from the early 2020s, but would still be the number one source of energy through to 2040.