The International Energy Agency, IEA, has predicted that global oil supply will outpace demand throughout 2019, as a “relentless” rise in output is swamps growth in consumption that is at risk from a slowing economy.
In its monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA left its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 unchanged from last month at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.4 million bpd, respectively, but cut its forecast for non-OECD demand growth, the engine of expansion in world oil consumption.
“While slower economic growth in some countries reduces the outlook for oil demand a significant downward revision to our price assumption is supportive,” the IEA said.
Since early October, the oil price has fallen by a quarter to below $70 a barrel, its lowest in eight months.
The agency raised its forecast for oil output growth from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, to 2.4 million bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd next year, versus its previous estimate of 2.2 million bpd and 1.8 million bpd, respectively.
The IEA also cut its forecast for demand for OPEC, crude by 300,000 bpd to 31.3 million bpd in 2019.