Yemisi Izuora
Oil major Shell is expected to achieve strong third quarter earnings following record gas trading, higher upstream production and liquefaction volumes, and increased refining margins.
The supermajor said in a trading update on Tuesday that those factors are key to the expected earnings growth.
Shell said in its third quarter 2025 update note that trading and optimization in its Integrated Gas division is expected to be “significantly higher” for the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Marketing adjusted earnings, as well as trading in the chemicals and fuels divisions, are also set to be higher than in Q2, said the supermajor, which reports full Q3 earnings on October 30.
Shell raised its outlook for LNG volumes to 7.0-7.4 million tons for the third quarter, compared to 6.7-7.3 million tons previously expected. Upstream production is now seen at 1.79–1.89 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up from 1.7-1.9 million boepd expected previously.
The refining margin for the group is estimated at $11.60 per barrel for the third quarter, up from $8.90 a barrel for the second quarter.
“This production update provides some particular areas of growth which should please investors,” said Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor.
“Impairments and ongoing losses in the Renewables business may take off some of the shine, but for the most part the numbers are robust against a difficult backdrop,” Hunter added.
In July, Shell reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, as reduced expenses and higher marketing margins partly offset lower oil and gas prices and weaker trading results.
The Q2 2025 earnings reflected lower trading and optimization margins and lower realized liquids and gas prices.
Now the expected higher trading result for the third quarter at the world’s top LNG trader could boost Shell’s earnings.