Yemisi Izuora
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reportedly increased the gantry price of petrol from N774 to N875 per litre, a review many analysts say may not be unconnected with the conflict in the Middle East which has sent crude oil price rising in the last few days.
Oil surged the most in four years as the first impacts of the war in the Middle East began to be felt, with a near halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disruption at a big refinery in Saudi Arabia underscoring the threat to supplies in one of the world’s top producing regions.
Brent futures traded about 6 per cent higher after topping $80 a barrel earlier and West Texas Intermediate was near $71 a barrel. Diesel futures the engine of the global economy jumped more than a fifth at one point.
US President Donald Trump said the conflict is projected to last four to five weeks, but added that the US is prepared to fight longer, saying a “big wave” has yet to come. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, for his part, rejected the idea of an “endless” war. The Iran Islamic Republic’s security chief, meanwhile, ruled out negotiations with the US and Israel.
The war marks a dangerous new phase for the Middle East and the global oil market. Iran pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day, or 3 per cent of global output, but it wields greater influence over energy supplies given its location alongside the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil from the Persian Gulf must pass through the waterway to get to major markets such as China, India and Japan. The chokepoint handles a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar portion of liquefied natural gas.
“The longer the war and the blockade persist, the greater the risk that more and more fear will creep into the market,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “We see further upside today.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates that a halt in Hormuz lasting 25 days would fill producer nations’ storage tanks, forcing them to cut production. Insurance markets are already scrambling to work out how to price the risk.
A US flagged oil tanker that operates as part of a military fuel supply program was hit in the region, while at least four vessels were targeted on Sunday. Naval forces described the threat as “critical” and swaths of shipowners aren’t transiting
A senior official at the Dangote refinery was quoted as confirming the increase on Monday, noting that the adjustment followed recent volatility in global crude oil prices.
The new gantry price is now N875 per litre from N774 and the review became necessary due to changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs,” the official was quoted as saying.
Although, this gantry price adjustment cannot be independently verified by Oriental News Nigeria, spokesperson of the Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina is not responding to questions.
But according to petroleumprice.ng, the revised price had already been reflected, indicating a shift in downstream pricing benchmarks.
The price increase came shortly after the refinery suspended petrol loading operations effective midnight on March 2, 2026, following a sharp surge in international crude oil prices, which crossed the $80 per barrel threshold overnight.
The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has highlighted possible consequences of ongoing Middle East crises on Nigeria’s economy.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Center, Dr. Muda Yusuf, notes that the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict represents a classic double-edged shock for Nigeria.
The CPPE, however urges the government to strengthen oil production capacity, intensify anti-theft operations and incentivize upstream investment to maximise output within OPEC limits.
Yusuf, also called for firming up fiscal buffers and channel excess revenues into stabilization and sovereign savings frameworks.
Other recommendations include the deepening of domestic refining to reduce vulnerability to imported refined products, enhance transparency and liquidity in the foreign exchange market to mitigate volatility, cushion vulnerable households against energy-driven inflation shocks and expand non-oil exports, manufacturing, agro-processing, ICT, and services to reduce external vulnerability.
According to him, Higher oil prices may strengthen fiscal and external balances in the short term, adding “However, inflationary pressures, welfare deterioration, capital flow volatility, and global growth risks pose significant countervailing threats.
The ultimate impact will depend less on external events and more on domestic policy discipline, he said in a policy brief.
He said, “Strategic savings, production efficiency, macroeconomic prudence, and structural diversification will determine whether Nigeria converts geopolitical turbulence into macroeconomic resilience.”
Yusufu, warned that the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy and energy markets are the first transmission channel.
“Of particular strategic importance is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global crude oil supply is transported daily. Any disruption to this corridor has immediate implications for global oil prices, shipping costs, insurance premiums, and supply chains. There is also the output disruption effect, as Middle East countries are major oil producers.” he said.
For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 per cent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant, Yusuf pointed, noting ‘The effects will be both positive and adverse, depending on the duration of the conflict and the quality of domestic policy responses.’
In his analysis the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East historically trigger sharp increases in crude oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions.
Energy analysts also have warned that businesses entities and families will pay the price through fossil fuel-driven inflation: higher fuel costs, rising energy bills, and more expensive groceries as a consequence following escalating conflict between U.S, Israel and Iran.
They said all because of a system tied to a volatile, conflict-driven industry.
In response to escalating violent conflict involving Iran and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, climate justice organisation, 350.org, warned that the crisis exposes the costs of continued reliance on fossil fuels.
A strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world’s most strategically important choke points.
Iran holds the world’s third biggest oil reserves while Strait of Hormuz carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply – making it critical for the global economy and impacting people around the world and their household budgets.
Olivia Langhoff, Managing Director at 350.org, said: “The new war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lay bare the horrendous costs of a world chained to fossil fuels. When global energy security can be upended by a single flashpoint, it shows how unstable and risky our dependence on oil and gas is.
“Renewable energy provides home-grown power that remains secure and affordable regardless of geopolitical shocks.”
The price of crude oil has already risen 20% this year, and is expected to spike even more now. In 2022, energy and food price shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine pushed over 70 million people into poverty in the space of only three months, according to the United Nations Development Programme.
350.org is calling on governments to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy that strengthens communities, protects the Earth, and reduces exposure to global instability.
“Once again, families will pay the price through fossil fuel-driven inflation: higher fuel costs, rising energy bills, and more expensive groceries as a consequence. All because of a system tied to a volatile, conflict-driven industry.
“Renewable energy offers a world-wide path to real and long-term energy security, one rooted in cooperation, resilience, and justice, rather than instability and violence,” Langhoff added