Uche Cecil Izuora
Goldman Sachs has maintained its Brent crude forecast of $80/barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying lower Middle East supply should support prices if tensions between the United States and Iran ease by year-end.
The investment Bank said its forecast reflects price support from lower Middle East output in the second half of the year, balanced by downside pressure from stronger-than-expected output from the region in June and weaker demand in China, South Korea and the Middle East.
The Bank expects oil prices to retain most of their recent gains through July and August as global inventories continue to draw, supported by lower Middle East production, seasonal summer travel demand and a sharp slowdown in strategic petroleum reserve releases by OECD countries.
The Bank maintained its view that Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude would average $75 and $70 a barrel, respectively, in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
Despite a projected 2027 surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day, the bank does not expect Brent to fall below the high-$60s because of 1.2mb/d of global strategic stockpiling in 2027, and the price sensitivity of U.S. shale and of supply disruptions.
The Bank also highlighted two-sided risks to its forecast, saying it could see Brent exceeding $120 by the fourth quarter of 2026 and averaging $100 in 2027, if Hormuz remains disrupted.
On the downside, it sees Brent declining to the low $60s by end-2027 if supply exceeds expectations and demand losses prove more persistent.
Oil prices stood at their highest in more than six weeks on Thursday, as Yemen’s Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea and the United States launched a new round of strikes on Iran