Uche Cecil Izuora
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its
global supply and demand forecasts, despite the disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East because of the Iran war.
Data released by the Organization in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) do not suggest any demand disruption because of the war, which has blocked exports through the strait of Hormuz, led to huge oil production shutdowns and seen oil prices surge.
The OPEC sees oil consumption growing by 1.38mn b/d to 106.53mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d to 107.87mn b/d in 2027.
While the OPEC downgraded its oil demand forecast for the second quarter, “given ongoing developments in Middle East,” it said this would be offset by stronger consumption in the second half of the year. But should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, OPEC’s demand figures imply a colossal supply deficit this year.
The OPEC does not forecast its own members’ oil output, but it publishes production estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These showed OPEC+ production including Mexico fell by 7.702mn b/d on the month to 35.055mn b/d in March.
The fall was driven by the Mideast Gulf members of the alliance Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain which saw a combined decrease of just over 8mn b/d, according to secondary source data.
The OPEC does not see output from outside the alliance filling any potential deficit. The group sees non-OPEC+ supply growing by 630,000 b/d to 54.83mn b/d in 2026 and by 620,000 b/d to 55.45mn b/d in 2027, unchanged from last month.