World Bank raises forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 1.2%


The World Bank yesterday upgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 1.2 per cent for 2017, citing improved oil production due to decreased militant activities. The World Bank disclosed this in its June 2017 Global Economic Prospects report, saying:  “Nigeria is forecast to go from recession to a 1.2 percent growth rate in 2017, gaining speed to 2.4 percent in 2018.” The World Bank noted that: “In Nigeria, militants’ attacks on oil pipelines decreased. The economic recession in Nigeria is receding. In the first quarter of 2017, GDP fell by 0.5 percent (y/y), compared with a 1.7 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016. wold bank “The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturers returned to expansionary territory in April (Figure 2.6.1), indicating growth in the sector after contraction in the first quarter. “Oil exports are rebounding in Nigeria on the back of an uptick in oil production from fields previously damaged by militants’ attacks. Mining companies across the region are resuming production and exports. In contrast, current account balances have remained under pressure in a number of non-resource intensive countries.” 

The World Bank also projected 2.6 per cent economic growth for the Sub-Saharan African region. It stated: Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to pick up to 2.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.2 percent in 2018.”predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. However, per capita output is projected to shrink by 0.1 percent in 2017 and to increase to a modest 0.7 percent growth pace over 2018-19. At those rates, growth will be insufficient to achieve poverty reduction goals in the region, particularly if constraints to more vigorous growth persist. Growth in South Africa is projected to rise to 0.6 percent in 2017 and accelerate to 1.1 percent in 2018. Growth in non-resource- intensive countries is anticipated to remain solid, supported by infrastructure investment, resilient services sectors, and the recovery of agricultural production. Ethiopia is forecast to expand by 8.3 percent in 2017, Tanzania by 7.2 percent, Côte d’Ivoire by 6.8 percent, and Senegal by 6.7 percent.” The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will strengthen to 2.7 percent in 2017 as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilizing commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies. World Bank faults FG’s optimism on economic recovery May 20, 2017 Crude oil price drops, threatens Naira, 2017 budget June 6, 2017 Nigeria’s GDP shrinks 0.5 from 1.7 in 2016 May 23, 2017 

Source: Vanguard 

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