Uche Cecil Izuora
The drive by Nigeria through the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) to energize the country through massive renewable energy projects may face challenges as the world will fall short of meeting the UN’s objective to triple renewable capacity by 2030, despite the fact that many countries are expected to reach or surpass their national targets, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) most recent report.
The report, entitled Renewables 2024, explained that the world is set to deploy more than 5.5TW of renewable energy between now and 2030, three-times the additions between 2017 and 2023 and equivalent to the current power capacity of China, India, the US and the EU combined.
Most countries in Africa, especially Nigeria as well as other poor countries of the world would require investments of $21.3 billion by 2030 to be able to provide energy to huge underserved population.
This is according to the Global Association for the off-grid solar energy industry, which said the sum is six times larger than what it has managed to attract in investments so far.
Currently, the World Bank and the African Development Bank are working on a plan to bring electricity to 300 million across Africa by 2030. The two have promised to provide $30 billion for the project, raising another $90 billion from other investors.
Africa has long been seen as a perfect destination for wind and solar investors but there have been obstacles. Lacking grid infrastructure is perhaps the biggest of these, along with poverty that makes it hard for many to afford electricity supply.
The annual sum that needs to be spent on opening access to electricity to those without it would come in at about $3.6 billion over the period.
“Access to finance remains a significant challenge for the off-grid solar industry,” GOGLA said in a new report, as access to electricity actually worsens instead of improving. In 2022, the number of people without access to electricity rose for the first time in 20 years, to 685 million. This is the latest data available, the report noted.
The great majority of people without access to electricity live in sub-Saharan Africa and the numbers are rising. In 2010, 50 per cent of those lived in the region. By 2022, this has risen to 85 per cent, the industry association also reported.
The cheapest way to provide electrification to these no-access areas is off-grid solar, according to GOGLA, but it needs financial support from other entities. Per the organization’s proposal, a mix of debt, subsidies, and equity would do the job.
A total of 70 countries accounting for 80 per cent of global renewable power capacity will be leading this charge and are expected to reach or surpass their national renewable targets.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: “Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for. This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it is increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.”
However, this will not be enough to reach the UN target set at COP28 last year. According to the IEA, meeting the UN target will require upgrades to 25 million kilometres of electricity grids, matching the speed of renewables deployment with that of their integration into the grid and constructing 1.5TW of energy storage.
Solar PV is set to register 80 per cent of renewable capacity by 2030 and wind to double its current expansion rate.
According to Power Technology’s parent company, GlobalData, China, the US, Germany and India are the four leading countries for solar and wind generation across the globe. Last month, the IEA released a report claiming that tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and doubling the rate of energy efficiency would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by ten billion tonnes.
Meanwhile, Climate Action Network’s latest Renewable Energy Tracker Report has revealed that not one country is doing enough to provide clean, accessible, and affordable energy.
The latest findings show that the world is therefore not on track to reach 100 per cent Renewable Energy by 2050.
Solar panels: According to the report, achieving net zero by 2050 is still possible by tripling renewable energy capacity
According to CAN, renewable energy remains concentrated in just a few, often rich, countries, inaccessible to people globally – notably the rural poor, who are often dependent on toxic cooking fuels.
“Despite the continuing growth in investment in renewable energy, there are still too many barriers for developing countries to access the right kind of finance to grow their own renewables, these include mounting debt, limited public grants-based finance available, and high cost of capital in their regions,” stated the group, adding:
“Meanwhile, in the name of ‘clean energy’, big corporations are supplying the world with the hardware needed for the energy transition. At the same time, they are extracting the critical minerals needed without the consent of Indigenous Peoples and impacted communities, and at a high cost to the environment.”
Julie Ducasse, Coordinator on Renewable Energy Data at Climate Action Network International, said: “The current distribution of renewable energy is highly unequal, leaving millions without clean electricity and stalling socio-economic progress, especially in rural areas. Meanwhile, developed countries are not deploying enough renewables to phase out fossil fuels nor providing sufficient financial support for developing countries.
“It’s time for richer countries to step up. The industry must uphold the highest standards for human, land, and environmental rights to ensure a just and equitable energy transition that truly benefits local communities and workers across the entire supply chain, from the mining of critical minerals to the supply of renewable electricity.”
Elizabeth Wangeci Chege, Energy Efficiency & Cooling Specialist at Sustainable Energy for All, said: “We are now beyond the halfway point of the Decade of Action to achieve SDG 7 targets by 2030, with roughly 2,000 days left to significantly increase the share of renewable energy. Yet, alarmingly, the global share of renewables in total final energy consumption has regressed.
“We must urgently reverse this trend and accelerate the transition to clean energy by 2030. Still 685 million people worldwide – including 591 million in Africa – lack access to electricity. We must end these inequalities, prioritise people and nature, and unlock the full potential of renewables.”
Karabo Mokgonyana, Renewable Energy Campaigner at Power Shift Africa, said: “Behind the growth of renewable energy lies deep inequalities. Africa and other developing regions are being exploited and left behind in this global energy race, locked out by high capital costs, foreign debt, limited technological access, and a lack of support from rich nations. This injustice must end – we want an energy transition that is a tool for development for all