By Bolaji Douglas
Every team coming to Russia have their expectations, so also their fans. While the expectations of the teams and their officials remains measured and constraint by certain realities which being the active participants instils in them, not so the fans. It is not unusual nor out of place for the fans to go overboard with their expectations, football after all they say is unpredictable. The fans of the countries being represented expects their team to do well, trying to define what doing well entails would see us swing from one end of spectrum which bothers on moderation to the other extreme end which simply throws reality out of the window in order that unbridled optimism might reign. But in between these two spectrum lies the reality which the Super Eagles must have to contend with.
Realistically speaking what should we expect from the Super Eagles in Russia? To answer this question, we would need to consider a couple of factors and these I will be discussing in this write up.
The Group factor
Perhaps the most important factor to take on board while trying to analyse what to expect in Russia. The strength of the teams in the group which the Super Eagles has found itself. The team has been grouped in group D along with Argentina, Croatia and Iceland, and rightly so the group has been dubbed the group of death. To say that the Super Eagles have it’s work cut out trying to make it out of the group will be putting it mildly. To start with the team has been pitched against teams that are ranked higher including the newcomer to the Word Cup Iceland. Argentina is ranked 5th best team in the world, Croatia is ranked the 18th and Iceland the newcomer stands at 22nd, the Super Eagles is currently ranked 47th. Truth be told, ranking alone is not enough to manage the expectations of the team, lower ranked teams have beaten higher ranked team before. There are other points that should be taken on board and this is done by looking at the teams closely.
Argentina by far remain our toughest foe, although we have beaten them in friendlies before, we have never managed to do this at the World cup. We have met 4 times in the past, USA 94, where we lost to a Maradona led Argentina by 2-1. In 2002 Japan/China, we lost to them again by a narrow margin of 1-0, then in South Africa 2010, again we lost by a narrow margin of 1-0. Finally, in 2014 in Brazil we lost to them again 3-2 in the scintillating match that saw us take the game to the Argies twice equalising before finally succumbing to Messi’s magic.
While there is nothing to suggest that they would sustain the winning streak against us in Russia, there is nothing to suggest that we would stem the tide either. They have always come into the World Cup as one of the favourites, having won it twice in the past, 1978 and 1986. With the likes of Messi, Aguero and Higuain still in the team, they are still a formidable opponent. The game against Argentina would be our last game of the group. It must be said however that the current Argentina team does not look as strong as in the past.
While Messi is still doing it for Barcelona, it is a whole new set up in the Argie team. They have looked less assured in the friendlies they have played of recent, mauled by Nigeria and Germany. They also struggled in the qualifiers to make it to Russia. The joints and bolts of the team might just be loose and creaky. But teams like Argentina always have what has become a tournament experience and tradition to fall back upon when needed. As have been shown by the big teams over and over, like sleeping giants, these all know when to peak at the right time and bare their fangs just when they have been written off.
Croatia is another formidable foe in the team, formidable not in the same way as Argentina are, rather in a different way. Our record against teams from this part of europe is not an enviable one. We tend to struggle against their tactical discipline and the tempo with which they play. This will be Croatia’s 5th World cup since their break up from the former Yugoslavia, they came 3rd in the 1998 edition of the World Cup and have since struggled to match the achievement. What makes the Croatian team one that cannot be pushed aside is their knack for producing good tactically and technically sound players. Many of their players can be seen plying their trade for elite teams across Europe. Ivan Rakitic for Barcelona, Mario Mandzukic for Juventus, Luka Modric for Real Madrid, Ivan Perisic and Marcelo Brozovic for Inter Milan, Dejan Lovren for Liverpool to mention just a few. They have a team of seasoned players with lots of experience both at club and international level, and this it must be said has enabled them to put together a well-oiled team of seasoned players. They will be hard, even much harder than Argentina in my opinion and we will be meeting them first in our group.
Finally, the World Cup debutants Iceland. This is a team that no one following the emerging trend in the football world must take for granted. It is no coincidence that they are qualifying for their first World Cup tournament two years after qualifying for their first Euro Cup competition where they caused major upsets first by holding Portugal to a 1-1 draw in their group from which they qualified and then proceeded to beat England 2-1 all at their first attempt. Iceland have come a long way and invested so much into their football, now they are reaping the dividends of their hard work. They qualified from the same qualifier group as Croatia finishing above them with two points, that should be enough to set the alarm bells off because they have shown that their performance at the Euro Cup was no fluke.
While they might not boast of any major super star in the team, what they have going for them is a collective team spirit, discipline and a strong desire to grind out results while egged on by their vociferous and vibrant fans. And In Gylfi Sigurdsson, they have a magical player who if given the chance can help translate their hard graft into dividends. As the teams who played them in the Euro found out, breaking them down does not come easy as the Viking fighting spirit it appears lives on in this team. They will be Super Eagles second game in the group, this is a game which the Eagles cannot afford to drop the points at stake. The Icelandic team would not hesitate to reciprocate with similar sentiments.
The Team factor
We have looked at the teams in our group but how do we fare against them? This we can answer by looking at our own team. This will be the 6th appearance at the World cup for the Super Eagles, out which we have been able to qualify from the group stage 3 times namely 1994, 1998 and 2014. Croatia have only managed this once and Iceland, well never. Personally, I believe we have managed to close the gap on Argentina more than anything to the point where we can challenge them on the field. This I say while not trying to read too many meanings into the last friendly match we played with them where we humiliated them by 4 goals to 2. Rather it is by looking back at our previous games in the World Cup, the score lines have been very close, and they have always had to dig deep to turn the table on us.
However, the current Nigerian team is a relatively young team and could do with some more playing experience at this level. The likes of Mikel, Onazi, Victor Moses, Omeruo and Echijelie (if he makes the final list) all have World Cup experience behind them therefore the others would be looking up to them for leadership and encouragement. There are areas where the team now could do with better personnel, especially experience wise. This therefore raises the question if they are ready to play in a very tight and demanding group as group D. Personally I believe that the team is one tournament too young, however I pray that I will be proven wrong on this.
It must be said however that the way the team blitzed it’s way through their group during the qualifiers left many surprised. They came out of a group that was also deemed as the group of death, the group featured the African football giants comprising Zambia, Algeria and Cameroon. They qualified with ease, while not saying the same would be the case, it can be said however that perhaps this experience would help them to handle the pressure which comes with the tag group D has been labelled with. And this perhaps also would explain why the handlers of the team have retained the core of the team and quite hesitant to dilute the team that earned the ticket with too many new faces.
The major weapon the African teams at the World Cup have in their favour in addition to their ability have been the surprise element, and the Super Eagles have that in abundance at this level. Can we bring this to group D remains the question?
The Historical factor
With 5 World Cup appearances behind the Super Eagles, we are no longer new to the biggest stage in the World of football. And having navigated our way out of the group stages on at least 3 times, the first being in our first participation, we are not charting a new terrain either. Argentina on the other hand are almost guaranteed a second-round place, as they have never failed to qualify from the group stage in the modern era. Historically they are the strongest and they will be coming into the group with what they would come to see as a tradition and a right, the right to make it past the group stage.
As strong as Croatia might look on paper, they have only managed this once in their four appearances at the World Cup not counting when they were part of the defunct Yugoslavia, that was in the 1994 edition, also their first and they went on to finish third.
While Iceland on the other hand have never done this before, this being their first appearance. But they showed at the Euro two years ago that they are not overawed by their debutant tag and would not be cowed by the more tournament experienced teams.
Verdict
As you can see all the teams in our group are formidable opponents, none can be swept aside, not even the debutant. And when a group is this strong and close, the margin for error is very small. That is why such a group is aptly named the ‘Group of Death’ So rightly named because every team will be looking at where they are most certain to get points and when they identify such, they will be doing everything to maximise their chances. None of the teams would willing to give away anything because they know it will come at a very high price.
A poor start almost guarantees that you are out as it often takes the prospect of rectifying the error out of the team’s hand, placing it instead in the outcome of the other games and the element of luck. As a result, this places a whole new demand on the teams and their players mentally since they do understand the slippery slope they climb while navigating the terrain of the group.
For Super Eagles to make it out of the group, we must not lose to Croatia in the first match, we cannot afford to drop any point against Iceland in the second and I hope we won’t have to rely on our match against Argentina to qualify. But I do not see that happening and as a result If at all we are going to qualify, it would go all the way to the wire. So fans should brace themselves for suspense which the Group of Death has in store.